Published: 26.10.2026 | Author: Ray Nicholls | Category: Board & Investor Insight
The conversation most boards have too late
The Autumn Budget lands on Wednesday 28 October. By Thursday, most boardrooms will be asking the same question: what changed, and what does it mean for us?
It's a reasonable question. It's also the second most useful one.
The more valuable conversation happens before the Chancellor stands up. Not "what will they announce?" Nobody in your business can answer that, and the speculation rarely survives the speech. The better question is: if something material moves, how ready are we?
That applies to any fiscal event. A Budget, a Spring Statement, a change in interest rates, a shift in employment costs. The specifics vary. The test of the finance function doesn't.
A pattern worth noticing
Over many years of talking to boards, investors and finance leaders, one pattern keeps coming back.
The businesses that absorb fiscal shocks well are rarely the ones with the most accurate forecast. Forecasts are always wrong in the detail. What sets these businesses apart is that they know which assumptions actually carry the plan, and they've already thought about what happens if those assumptions move.
The businesses that struggle tend to discover their sensitivities after the event. A board meeting is called. Finance is asked for a revised view. Three weeks later, a reforecast arrives that explains what happened but not what to do about it.
The difference isn't luck. It's preparation, and preparation starts with asking the right questions in advance.
Five questions to put to finance before any fiscal event:
1. Which three assumptions in our plan would hurt most if they moved?
Every plan rests on a handful of assumptions that do most of the work. Pricing, volumes, wage growth, borrowing costs, exchange rates. Most of the rest is detail.
A strong answer names three, quickly, and puts a rough number on each. A weak answer lists twenty, or asks for time to check. If finance can't say which assumptions carry the plan, the board can't know where to look when something changes.
2. What happens to our people costs if thresholds or rates change?
For most mid-market businesses, people are the largest cost line. Changes to employer contributions, pay thresholds, pension rules or the minimum wage flow straight through to margin.
A good answer gives a range, not a single figure, and separates the immediate cash effect from the knock-on effects on hiring plans and pricing. It also says which parts of the business feel it most.
3. How much real headroom do we have against our covenants?
The word that matters is "real". Headroom on paper can look comfortable until a modest shift in rates or earnings closes it faster than anyone expected.
In a PE-backed business this question is rarely academic. A good answer shows how much would need to move before a covenant comes under pressure, and how early the business would see it coming.
4. Which decisions are we holding, and what would release them?
Ahead of a fiscal event, decisions quietly stall. A hire is paused. An investment waits. A price change is deferred.
Some of that caution is sensible. Some of it is drift. Asking finance to list what's on hold, and the specific outcome that would unlock each item, turns vague uncertainty into a short, actionable list. It also stops the business waiting for a clarity that may never arrive.
5. How quickly could you give us a revised view, and how confident would it be?
This is the question that tells you the most. Not about the Budget. About the finance function.
A team with a well-built model, clean data and a clear sense of the business's drivers can turn a fiscal event into a decision-ready view within days. A team without those foundations needs weeks, and what it produces is often a reconciliation rather than a recommendation.
Both answers are honest. Only one gives the board something it can act on.
What the answers reveal
None of these questions are really about the Budget. They're a stress test of the finance function, and a fiscal event simply gives the board a natural reason to run it.
How finance responds tells you three things:
Whether the foundations are in place. Fast, confident answers usually mean a reliable model, good data and clear ownership of the numbers.
Whether finance thinks commercially. The strongest answers connect the numbers to decisions: what to hire, what to price, what to hold.
Whether the business has outgrown its finance leadership. A function that served a smaller business well can struggle when the board needs forward-looking insight rather than accurate reporting.
That last point deserves care. A slow or uncertain answer is not automatically a sign of the wrong person. It may reflect under-investment in systems, a team stretched too thin, or a brief that has quietly changed as the business grew. The useful response is to ask why, not to assume.
But if the same gaps show up every time the board asks a forward-looking question, it's worth considering whether the finance leadership the business has is the leadership it now needs.
Frequently asked questions
What should a board ask its CFO before the Budget?
Focus on readiness, not prediction. Ask which assumptions carry the plan, what people-cost changes would mean, how much real covenant headroom exists, which decisions are on hold, and how quickly finance could produce a revised view.
How quickly should a finance team respond to a Budget?
A well-run finance function should give the board an initial, decision-ready view within days, with a fuller reforecast to follow. If it routinely takes weeks, that's a signal worth investigating rather than a verdict.
It may reflect a systems issue, team capacity or a brief that has outgrown the current set-up. Repeated gaps in forward-looking insight may suggest the business needs a different shape of finance leadership.
Should a business reforecast after every fiscal event?
Not always. If the board already knows its key sensitivities, many announcements can be assessed against those without a full reforecast. A full reforecast makes sense when a change hits one of the assumptions that carry the plan.
A quiet test worth running
No finance team can tell you what the Chancellor will announce. What a good one can tell you is whether you're ready for it.
So before Wednesday, or before the next fiscal event, put these five questions to your finance team. Listen to the answers, and listen to how quickly and clearly they come.
What would your finance team say if you asked them today?
If the answers raise questions about whether your finance leadership fits where the business is heading, the Pitch Hill Partners Education Centre has more on how boards assess and shape that role. Or get in touch for a confidential conversation.
Pitch Hill Partners
Pitch Hill Partners helps investors, boards and CEOs appoint CFOs, Finance Directors, Financial Controllers and FP&A leaders across the UK, on both a permanent and interim basis. If a finance seat has just emptied — or you think it might — we're happy to talk it through.
